Ceramica Cleopatra vs AL Masry Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ceramica Cleopatra
Oct 07, 2026 - 17:00
1.28 1.32
AL Masry
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ceramica Cleopatra opened at 0 against AL Masry in the League Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Ceramica Cleopatra from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ceramica Cleopatra -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward AL Masry than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
AL Masry +0.25
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+16.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.82 / 1.83 -0.25 2.41 / 1.94 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.87 / 1.79 -0.25 2.44 / 1.94 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet 0 1.82 / 1.83 -0.25 2.43 / 1.94 — -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.85 / 1.82 -0.25 2.59 / 1.94 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.44
Ceramica Cleopatra @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Ceramica Cleopatra @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.44 vs 2.42
Market price is 0.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 12.50 11.50
-2.00 11.50 10.50
-1.50 7.00 5.20
-1.25 5.47 4.65
-1.00 5.75 4.10
-0.75 3.58 2.79
-0.25 2.43 1.94
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.70 1.46
+0.75 1.34 1.21
+1.00 1.16 1.07
+1.25 1.12 1.08
+1.50 1.10 1.04
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 6.80
-1.50 6.80 5.25
-1.25 6.25 4.50
-1.00 5.75 4.00
-0.75 3.70 2.85
-0.50 2.85 2.38
-0.25 2.50 1.98
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.82 1.50
+0.50 1.55 1.40
+0.75 1.40 1.26
+1.00 1.23 1.14
+1.25 1.19 1.12
+1.50 1.16 1.10
+1.75 1.10 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.66 2.80
-0.50 2.62 2.27
-0.25 2.59 1.94
0 2.15 1.60
+0.25 1.74 1.42
+0.50 1.54 1.41
+0.75 1.37 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 5.20
-1.25 5.40 4.65
-1.00 5.75 4.10
-0.75 3.58 2.78
-0.25 2.41 1.94
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.70 1.45
+0.75 1.34 1.21
+1.00 1.16 1.07
+1.25 1.12 1.09
+1.50 1.10 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.65 3.85
-0.75 3.04 2.69
-0.50 2.78 2.21
-0.25 2.44 1.94
0 2.10 1.64
+0.25 1.78 1.46
+0.50 1.58 1.36
+0.75 1.38 1.29
+1.00 1.19 1.26
Primary Bets
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