Uganda vs Congo DR Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Uganda
Oct 05, 2026 - 13:00
1.22 1.38
Congo DR
Opening
+0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
+0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
+0.25
2 / 2 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Uganda opened at +0.25 against Congo DR in the Friendlies. The current market consensus is +0.25. The current consensus is +0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Uganda +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Uganda +0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

+0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Uganda than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
+0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK +0.25 3.20 / 1.59 +0.25 3.20 / 1.59 — 0
1xBet +0.25 3.20 / 1.72 +0.25 3.20 / 1.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
+0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.20
Uganda @ +0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.88
Uganda @ +0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.20 vs 1.88
Market price is 70.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 1.38 1.02
-0.75 1.59 1.11
-0.25 2.27 1.26
0 3.35 1.38
+0.25 3.20 1.72
+0.75 4.84 2.12
+1.00 7.90 2.83
+1.25 8.35 3.26
+1.50 8.80 3.50

Marathonbet Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 1.38 1.02
-0.75 1.59 1.11
-0.25 2.10 1.26
0 2.74 1.35
+0.25 3.20 1.59
+0.75 4.85 2.12
+1.00 7.90 2.83
+1.25 8.40 3.18
+1.50 8.80 3.50
Primary Bets
More