Palmeiras vs Fluminense Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Palmeiras
Oct 22, 2026 - 00:30
1.70 0.72
Fluminense
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Palmeiras opened at -0.25 against Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.91
Palmeiras -0.91

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Palmeiras -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.66
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.66 AH points more toward Palmeiras than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Palmeiras -0.25
@ 1.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.66
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.45
Price Advantage
+15.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.59 / 3.14 -0.25 1.59 / 3.14 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.68 / 3.14 -0.25 1.68 / 3.14 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.91
xG 1.70 / 0.72 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.59
Palmeiras @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.45
Palmeiras @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.59 vs 1.45
Market price is 9.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.35 8.40
-1.25 3.10 7.90
-1.00 2.70 7.50
-0.75 2.10 4.75
-0.25 1.68 3.14
0 1.38 3.12
+0.25 1.27 2.23
+0.75 1.12 1.61
+1.00 1.03 1.42
+1.25 1.02 1.33

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.75 7.00
-0.75 2.20 4.65
-0.50 1.95 3.55
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.65
+1.00 1.10 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.35 8.40
-1.25 3.04 7.90
-1.00 2.70 7.50
-0.75 2.10 4.75
-0.25 1.59 3.14
0 1.35 2.74
+0.25 1.27 2.11
+0.75 1.12 1.61
+1.00 1.03 1.42
+1.25 1.02 1.30
Primary Bets
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