Honduras vs Jamaica Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Honduras
Oct 06, 2026 - 02:00
1.29 1.31
Jamaica
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Honduras opened at -0.25 against Jamaica in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Honduras -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Jamaica than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jamaica +0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+83.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.62 / 3.20 -0.25 1.66 / 3.05 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.80 / 3.16 -0.25 1.80 / 3.16 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.61 / 3.20 -0.25 1.66 / 3.05 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.75 / 2.95 -0.25 1.75 / 2.92 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.70 / 3.05 -0.25 1.70 / 3.05 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.80
Honduras @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Honduras @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.80 vs 2.39
Market price is 24.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.88 9.00
-1.25 3.48 8.45
-1.00 3.06 7.80
-0.75 2.25 4.70
-0.25 1.66 3.05
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.75 1.12 1.52
+1.00 1.02 1.33

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.10 6.80
-0.75 2.38 4.25
-0.50 2.05 3.30
-0.25 1.78 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.02
+0.50 1.32 1.75
+0.75 1.21 1.55
+1.00 1.10 1.35

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.70 3.05
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.31 2.00

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.92
+0.25 1.37 2.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.88 9.00
-1.25 3.38 8.50
-1.00 3.06 7.80
-0.75 2.25 4.70
-0.25 1.66 3.05
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.75 1.12 1.52
+1.00 1.02 1.33

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.47 4.84
-0.50 2.10 3.65
-0.25 1.80 3.16
0 1.49 2.65
+0.25 1.36 2.05
+0.50 1.28 1.75
+0.75 1.18 1.55
Primary Bets
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