Haiti vs Costa Rica Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Haiti
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 2-0)
Costa Rica
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium Sabina Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Haiti opened at 0 against Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Haiti from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Haiti -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Haiti -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Costa Rica than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Costa Rica +0.25
@ 2.51
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+26.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:18
Opening
0
20:51
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.89 / 1.82 -0.25 1.94 / 2.35 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.94 / 1.86 0 1.74 / 2.14 — 0
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.89 / 1.82 -0.25 1.98 / 2.35 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.27 / 2.07 -0.25 2.05 / 2.37 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.87 / 1.80 -0.25 1.98 / 2.39 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 9.20
-2.00 8.80 9.80
-1.75 5.80 7.70
-1.50 4.45 5.75
-1.25 4.00 5.30
-1.00 3.58 4.85
-0.75 2.66 3.34
-0.25 1.98 2.35
0 1.69 2.06
+0.25 1.48 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.37
+1.00 1.11 1.21
+1.25 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.03 1.07
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 6.40
-1.50 4.65 5.75
-1.25 4.25 5.25
-1.00 3.80 4.50
-0.75 2.85 3.30
-0.50 2.35 2.68
-0.25 2.08 2.35
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.58 1.72
+0.50 1.45 1.58
+0.75 1.32 1.40
+1.00 1.19 1.25
+1.25 1.16 1.21
+1.50 1.14 1.18
+1.75 1.12 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.27 2.70
-0.25 1.98 2.39
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.49 1.71
+0.50 1.39 1.54

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 2.67
-0.25 2.05 2.37
+0.25 1.55 1.72
+0.50 1.44 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.80 8.70
-1.75 5.80 7.70
-1.50 4.45 5.75
-1.25 4.00 5.30
-1.00 3.58 4.85
-0.75 2.66 3.34
-0.25 1.94 2.35
0 1.69 2.06
+0.25 1.48 1.71
+0.75 1.24 1.37
+1.00 1.11 1.21
+1.25 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.03 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.82 4.88
-0.75 2.84 3.58
-0.50 2.36 2.87
-0.25 2.06 2.51
0 1.74 2.14
+0.25 1.54 1.81
+0.50 1.43 1.61
+0.75 1.30 1.44
+1.00 1.19 1.27
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More