Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vasco DA Gama
Oct 21, 2026 - 20:00
1.16 1.47
Boca Juniors
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vasco DA Gama opened at 0 against Boca Juniors in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.28
Vasco DA Gama +0.28

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Vasco DA Gama 0
Model–Market Gap
0.28
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.28 AH points more toward Boca Juniors than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Boca Juniors 0
@ 2.12
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.28
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+26.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.74 / 2.00 0 1.74 / 2.00 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.74 / 2.13 0 1.72 / 2.12 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.05 0 1.80 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet 0 1.83 / 2.11 0 1.83 / 2.11 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.65 / 2.75 -0.50 2.52 / 2.87 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.28
xG 1.16 / 1.47 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.72
Vasco DA Gama @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Vasco DA Gama @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.72 vs 2.48
Market price is 30.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 13.00
-1.75 7.09 8.70
-1.50 5.25 6.35
-1.25 4.74 5.80
-1.00 4.20 5.30
-0.75 2.93 3.50
-0.25 2.20 2.38
0 1.83 2.11
+0.25 1.48 1.76
+0.75 1.22 1.31
+1.00 1.09 1.15
+1.25 1.07 1.12
+1.50 1.06 1.09

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 6.80
-1.25 4.50 6.00
-1.00 4.15 5.50
-0.75 3.00 3.45
-0.50 2.38 2.75
-0.25 2.10 2.38
0 1.80 2.05
+0.25 1.55 1.78
+0.50 1.42 1.55
+0.75 1.30 1.38
+1.00 1.15 1.22
+1.25 1.12 1.19
+1.50 1.10 1.16

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.52 2.87
+0.50 1.45 1.55

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 8.70
-1.50 5.25 6.35
-1.25 4.75 5.80
-1.00 4.20 5.30
-0.75 2.93 3.50
-0.25 2.05 2.38
0 1.74 2.00
+0.25 1.48 1.64
+0.75 1.22 1.31
+1.00 1.09 1.15
+1.25 1.07 1.12
+1.50 1.06 1.09

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.28 5.89
-0.75 3.07 3.89
-0.50 2.50 3.04
-0.25 2.13 2.59
0 1.72 2.12
+0.25 1.50 1.74
+0.50 1.37 1.53
+0.75 1.25 1.38
+1.00 1.13 1.22
Primary Bets
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