Leones del Norte vs Emelec Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Leones del Norte
Oct 18, 2026 - 20:00
1.11 1.04
Emelec
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Leones del Norte opened at -0.25 against Emelec in the Liga Pro. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.06
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Leones del Norte -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.19
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.19 AH points more toward Emelec than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Emelec +0.25
@ 2.98
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.19
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+68.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.74 -0.25 1.81 / 2.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.98 -0.25 1.90 / 2.98 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.79 -0.25 1.87 / 2.79 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.06
xG 1.11 / 1.04 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Leones del Norte @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Leones del Norte @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.85 8.60
-1.50 4.80 7.90
-1.25 3.98 7.40
-1.00 3.69 7.27
-0.75 2.56 4.28
-0.25 1.87 2.79
0 1.55 2.37
+0.25 1.37 1.87
+0.75 1.16 1.43
+1.00 1.05 1.24
+1.25 1.03 1.18
+1.50 1.02 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.40 7.00
-1.00 3.90 6.40
-0.75 2.85 4.00
-0.50 2.35 3.10
-0.25 2.00 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.80
+0.50 1.35 1.58
+0.75 1.23 1.40
+1.00 1.12 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.20

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.85 9.20
-1.50 4.45 7.90
-1.25 3.96 7.40
-1.00 3.48 6.80
-0.75 2.52 4.25
-0.25 1.81 2.74
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.35 1.81
+0.75 1.15 1.41
+1.00 1.04 1.22
+1.25 1.03 1.17
+1.50 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 4.59
-0.50 2.24 3.48
-0.25 1.90 2.98
0 1.54 2.45
+0.25 1.38 1.90
+0.50 1.29 1.64
+0.75 1.19 1.45
Primary Bets
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