Libertad vs Leones del Norte Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Libertad
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Leones del Norte
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Libertad opened at 0 against Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Libertad from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.14 / 1.06
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Libertad -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Leones del Norte than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Leones del Norte +0.25
@ 2.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.78
Price Advantage
+55.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:52
Opening
0
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:57
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.69 / 1.99 -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.74 / 2.09 -0.25 2.01 / 2.76 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.08 / 2.42 0 1.70 / 2.10 -0.25 +0.25
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.04 -0.25 1.94 / 2.57 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.07 / 2.47 -0.25 2.07 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.10 -0.25 1.75 / 2.19 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 8.75
-1.50 5.14 6.95
-1.25 4.18 6.47
-1.00 3.96 6.15
-0.75 2.67 3.86
-0.25 1.94 2.57
0 1.63 2.20
+0.25 1.44 1.80
+0.75 1.20 1.40
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 6.60
-1.25 4.40 6.00
-1.00 4.00 5.75
-0.75 2.85 3.70
-0.50 2.38 2.85
-0.25 2.05 2.50
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.50 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.55
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.14 1.23
+1.25 1.12 1.20
+1.50 1.11 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.99 2.39
-0.25 1.75 2.19
0 1.49 1.89
+0.25 1.35 1.59
+0.50 1.28 1.43

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.32 2.85
-0.25 2.07 2.47
+0.25 1.53 1.72
+0.50 1.42 1.60

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 9.50
-1.50 4.65 6.95
-1.25 4.15 6.40
-1.00 3.68 5.90
-0.75 2.62 3.82
-0.25 1.88 2.52
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.41 1.75
+0.75 1.19 1.38
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.05 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.90 5.84
-0.75 2.85 4.14
-0.50 2.34 3.20
-0.25 2.01 2.76
0 1.65 2.29
+0.25 1.47 1.85
+0.50 1.36 1.62
+0.75 1.24 1.44
+1.00 1.14 1.26
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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