Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Delfin SC
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 2-2)
Mushuc Runa SC
Kick-off 20:30 Stadium Estadio Jocay

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Delfin SC opened at 0 against Mushuc Runa SC in the Liga Pro. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Delfin SC from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Delfin SC +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.98 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Delfin SC -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Mushuc Runa SC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Mushuc Runa SC +0.25
@ 3.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.53
Price Advantage
+98.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:52
Opening
0
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
20:28
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 1.80 / 2.74 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.77 -0.25 1.89 / 3.03 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.87 / 1.87 -0.25 1.86 / 2.79 -0.25 -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.62 / 1.62 +0.25 1.50 / 1.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.75 / 2.21 -0.25 1.65 / 2.37 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 11.70 10.90
-1.75 5.75 8.65
-1.50 4.79 7.80
-1.25 3.92 7.20
-1.00 3.64 7.16
-0.75 2.53 4.22
-0.25 1.86 2.79
0 1.55 2.37
+0.25 1.37 1.88
+0.75 1.16 1.44
+1.00 1.05 1.25
+1.25 1.03 1.19
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 7.00
-1.25 3.90 7.00
-1.00 3.45 6.80
-0.75 2.60 4.15
-0.50 2.15 3.30
-0.25 1.85 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.95
+0.50 1.32 1.68
+0.75 1.22 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 2.37
0 1.40 2.05
+0.25 1.29 1.68

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 2.60
-0.25 2.05 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.75
+0.50 1.47 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 9.30
-1.50 4.35 7.80
-1.25 3.90 7.20
-1.00 3.42 6.70
-0.75 2.49 4.20
-0.25 1.80 2.74
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.35 1.82
+0.75 1.15 1.42
+1.00 1.05 1.23
+1.25 1.03 1.18
+1.50 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.63 5.34
-0.75 2.68 4.64
-0.50 2.22 3.52
-0.25 1.89 3.03
0 1.55 2.50
+0.25 1.40 1.95
+0.50 1.31 1.68
+0.75 1.20 1.49
+1.00 1.15 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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