Cerro Porteno vs Rubio NU Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cerro Porteno
Sep 30, 2026 - 22:30
1.37 1.23
Rubio NU
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cerro Porteno opened at -0.25 against Rubio NU in the Copa Paraguay. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cerro Porteno -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Rubio NU than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Rubio NU +0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+68.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.66 -0.25 1.60 / 3.14 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.66 -0.25 1.62 / 3.14 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 2.80 -0.25 1.70 / 2.87 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
xG 1.37 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.60
Cerro Porteno @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.16
Cerro Porteno @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.60 vs 2.16
Market price is 25.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.48 9.00
-1.25 3.08 8.40
-1.00 2.66 7.80
-0.75 2.10 4.79
-0.25 1.62 3.14
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.27 2.10
+0.75 1.12 1.59
+1.00 1.02 1.37

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.70 2.87
+0.25 1.40 2.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.48 9.00
-1.25 3.08 8.40
-1.00 2.66 7.80
-0.75 2.10 4.80
-0.25 1.60 3.14
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.27 2.08
+0.75 1.12 1.59
+1.00 1.02 1.37
Primary Bets
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