Ajman vs Baniyas SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ajman
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Baniyas SC
Kick-off 13:10 Stadium Ajman Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ajman opened at -0.25 against Baniyas SC in the League Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ajman -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Baniyas SC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Baniyas SC +0.25
@ 2.69
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+54.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:10
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.69 -0.25 1.79 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.94 / 2.59 -0.25 1.91 / 2.62 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.79 / 2.69 -0.25 1.79 / 2.69 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.64 / 2.29 -0.25 1.69 / 2.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.05 7.10
-1.00 3.20 6.05
-0.25 1.79 2.69
0 1.51 2.26
+0.25 1.36 1.83
+1.00 1.06 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.69 2.20
0 1.46 1.93
+0.25 1.34 1.64

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.05 7.10
-1.00 3.20 6.05
-0.25 1.79 2.69
0 1.51 2.26
+0.25 1.36 1.83
+1.00 1.06 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.99
-0.25 1.91 2.62
0 1.61 2.26
+0.25 1.44 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.65
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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