Al-Khor vs UMM Salal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Al-Khor
Sep 29, 2026 - 15:00
1.25 1.35
UMM Salal
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Al-Khor opened at -0.25 against UMM Salal in the QSL Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Al-Khor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward UMM Salal than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
UMM Salal +0.25
@ 1.96
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+18.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.42 / 1.89 -0.25 2.42 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.44 / 1.96 -0.25 2.44 / 1.96 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.43 / 1.91 -0.25 2.44 / 1.91 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.44 / 1.90 -0.25 2.45 / 1.90 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.44
Al-Khor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Al-Khor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.44 vs 2.52
Market price is 3.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.90 5.40
-1.50 5.90 4.20
-1.25 5.41 3.78
-1.00 4.95 3.34
-0.75 3.43 2.57
-0.25 2.44 1.91
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.76 1.45
+0.75 1.41 1.23
+1.00 1.24 1.11
+1.25 1.19 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.45 1.90
0 2.11 1.63
+0.25 1.78 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.90 5.40
-1.50 5.90 4.20
-1.25 5.40 3.78
-1.00 4.95 3.34
-0.75 3.42 2.56
-0.25 2.42 1.89
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.74 1.44
+0.75 1.40 1.23
+1.00 1.24 1.11
+1.25 1.19 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.78 2.23
-0.25 2.44 1.96
0 2.12 1.66
+0.25 1.80 1.49
+0.50 1.60 1.38
Primary Bets
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