Al Shahaniya vs Al-Duhail SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Al Shahaniya
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Al-Duhail SC
Kick-off 17:15 Stadium Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Al Shahaniya opened at -0.25 against Al-Duhail SC in the QSL Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is -0.50. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.37 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Al Shahaniya -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Al-Duhail SC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Al Shahaniya -0.25
@ 3.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.16
Price Advantage
+41.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.50
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.50
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
16:36
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:14
PRE1
-0.50
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.81 -0.25 2.49 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.62 / 1.85 -0.50 3.17 / 1.88 -0.50 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.88 -0.25 2.60 / 1.88 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.58 / 1.83 -0.25 2.50 / 1.87 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.57 / 1.83 -0.50 2.62 / 1.85 -0.50 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 5.30
-1.50 6.20 4.10
-1.25 5.75 3.68
-1.00 5.30 3.28
-0.75 3.59 2.54
-0.25 2.50 1.87
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.79 1.43
+0.75 1.42 1.21
+1.00 1.25 1.09
+1.25 1.20 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 4.40
-1.50 5.75 3.55
-1.25 5.50 3.30
-1.00 4.80 2.85
-0.75 3.55 2.38
-0.50 3.00 2.08
-0.25 2.60 1.88
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.92 1.48
+0.50 1.72 1.38
+0.75 1.55 1.27
+1.00 1.40 1.18
+1.25 1.32 1.15
+1.50 1.27 1.14
+1.75 1.20 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.62 1.85
-0.25 2.70 1.63
0 2.62 1.41
+0.25 2.10 1.39
+0.50 1.82 1.41

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 5.30
-1.50 6.20 4.10
-1.25 5.75 3.68
-1.00 5.30 3.28
-0.75 3.58 2.52
-0.25 2.49 1.85
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.77 1.42
+0.75 1.41 1.21
+1.00 1.25 1.09
+1.25 1.20 1.07
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.06 2.12
-0.50 3.17 1.88
-0.25 3.06 1.65
0 2.68 1.42
+0.25 2.16 1.33
+0.50 1.89 1.32
+0.75 1.68 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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