Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Valur Reykjavik
Oct 17, 2026 - 14:00
1.30 1.30
KA Akureyri
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Valur Reykjavik opened at -0.25 against KA Akureyri in the Úrvalsdeild. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Valur Reykjavik -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward KA Akureyri than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
KA Akureyri +0.25
@ 2.70
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+55.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 2.58 -0.25 1.74 / 2.58 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.70 -0.25 1.83 / 2.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.61 -0.25 1.78 / 2.61 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.61 / 2.18 -0.25 1.61 / 2.18 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Valur Reykjavik @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Valur Reykjavik @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.36
Market price is 22.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.20 11.00
-2.00 5.45 10.00
-1.75 4.05 7.30
-1.50 3.28 5.65
-1.25 2.99 5.26
-1.00 2.66 4.85
-0.75 2.24 3.52
-0.25 1.78 2.61
0 1.55 2.31
+0.25 1.42 1.94
+0.75 1.23 1.55
+1.00 1.11 1.37
+1.25 1.10 1.31
+1.50 1.08 1.25
+1.75 1.03 1.17
+2.50 1.04 1.06

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.61 2.18
0 1.44 1.97
+0.25 1.35 1.73

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 5.45 9.00
-1.75 4.05 7.30
-1.50 3.28 5.65
-1.25 2.97 5.25
-1.00 2.66 4.85
-0.75 2.21 3.50
-0.25 1.74 2.58
0 1.55 2.31
+0.25 1.40 1.90
+0.75 1.22 1.53
+1.00 1.11 1.37
+1.25 1.09 1.30
+1.50 1.08 1.25
+1.75 1.03 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.35 3.71
-0.50 2.07 3.03
-0.25 1.83 2.70
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.98
+0.50 1.36 1.75
+0.75 1.26 1.58
Primary Bets
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