Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Thor Akureyri
Oct 17, 2026 - 14:00
1.26 1.34
Stjarnan
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 2 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Thor Akureyri opened at -0.25 against Stjarnan in the Úrvalsdeild. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Thor Akureyri -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Stjarnan than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.14 / 1.50 -0.25 3.14 / 1.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.14 / 1.50 -0.25 3.14 / 1.50 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.14
Thor Akureyri @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Thor Akureyri @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.14 vs 2.48
Market price is 26.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.10 2.66
-1.25 6.25 2.39
-1.00 6.25 2.18
-0.75 4.40 1.82
-0.25 3.14 1.50
0 2.81 1.33
+0.25 2.28 1.27
+0.75 1.79 1.14
+1.00 1.62 1.06
+1.25 1.45 1.06
+1.50 1.37 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.10 2.66
-1.25 6.25 2.40
-1.00 6.25 2.18
-0.75 4.40 1.83
-0.25 3.14 1.50
0 2.81 1.33
+0.25 2.28 1.27
+0.75 1.80 1.14
+1.00 1.62 1.06
+1.25 1.46 1.06
+1.50 1.37 1.04
Primary Bets
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