KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

KR Reykjavik
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Vikingur Reykjavik
Kick-off 14:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

KR Reykjavik opened at -0.25 against Vikingur Reykjavik in the Úrvalsdeild. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
KR Reykjavik +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.18 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
KR Reykjavik -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Vikingur Reykjavik than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Vikingur Reykjavik +0.25
@ 1.91
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.56
Price Advantage
+22.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:13
Opening
-0.25
12:34
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.55 / 1.71 -0.25 2.49 / 1.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.52 / 1.86 -0.25 2.68 / 1.80 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — +0.25
1xBet 0 2.29 / 1.53 -0.25 2.52 / 1.79 — -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.91 / 1.50 +0.25 1.83 / 1.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.00 / 1.71 -0.25 2.11 / 1.60 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 5.60
-2.00 9.10 4.95
-1.75 6.40 3.78
-1.50 5.05 3.08
-1.25 4.72 2.85
-1.00 4.33 2.56
-0.75 3.30 2.20
-0.25 2.52 1.79
0 2.27 1.57
+0.25 1.93 1.44
+0.75 1.57 1.26
+1.00 1.40 1.14
+1.25 1.34 1.12
+1.50 1.28 1.10
+1.75 1.19 1.05
+2.50 1.08 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 4.15
-1.50 4.40 3.45
-1.25 4.15 3.10
-1.00 3.80 2.85
-0.75 3.10 2.38
-0.50 2.68 1.98
-0.25 2.38 1.90
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.90 1.55
+0.50 1.82 1.45
+0.75 1.55 1.35
+1.00 1.40 1.25
+1.25 1.35 1.22
+1.50 1.30 1.20
+1.75 1.22 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.11 1.60
0 1.98 1.44
+0.25 1.75 1.38

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.32 1.91
+0.25 1.83 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.00 5.60
-2.00 9.10 4.95
-1.75 6.40 3.76
-1.50 5.05 3.08
-1.25 4.70 2.83
-1.00 4.35 2.56
-0.75 3.28 2.17
-0.25 2.49 1.74
0 2.27 1.57
+0.25 1.90 1.43
+0.75 1.55 1.25
+1.00 1.40 1.14
+1.25 1.33 1.12
+1.50 1.28 1.10
+1.75 1.19 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.27 2.26
-0.50 2.98 2.01
-0.25 2.68 1.80
0 2.39 1.59
+0.25 2.05 1.48
+0.50 1.85 1.40
+0.75 1.67 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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