PKKU vs SalPa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

PKKU
Oct 10, 2026 - 11:00
1.30 1.30
SalPa
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

PKKU opened at 0 against SalPa in the Ykkönen. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward PKKU from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
PKKU -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward SalPa than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
PKKU -0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.36
Price Advantage
+16.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.71 -0.25 2.49 / 1.73 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.69 / 1.79 -0.25 2.69 / 1.78 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 -0.25 2.75 / 1.75 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.71 -0.25 2.51 / 1.74 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.69
PKKU @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
PKKU @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.69 vs 2.36
Market price is 14.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 5.90
-2.00 9.20 5.20
-1.75 6.70 3.90
-1.50 5.25 3.14
-1.25 4.90 2.88
-1.00 4.55 2.59
-0.75 3.35 2.18
-0.25 2.51 1.74
0 2.25 1.54
+0.25 1.92 1.43
+0.75 1.56 1.25
+1.00 1.39 1.13
+1.25 1.32 1.11
+1.50 1.27 1.09
+1.75 1.18 1.05
+2.00 1.10 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 3.80
-1.50 5.75 3.10
-1.25 5.50 2.85
-1.00 5.00 2.60
-0.75 3.70 2.20
-0.50 3.10 1.98
-0.25 2.75 1.75
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 2.05 1.42
+0.50 1.82 1.35
+0.75 1.65 1.26
+1.00 1.48 1.17
+1.25 1.40 1.15
+1.50 1.35 1.14
+1.75 1.25 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 5.90
-2.00 7.80 5.20
-1.75 6.70 3.90
-1.50 5.25 3.14
-1.25 4.90 2.88
-1.00 4.55 2.59
-0.75 3.34 2.17
-0.25 2.49 1.73
0 2.25 1.54
+0.25 1.90 1.42
+0.75 1.55 1.24
+1.00 1.39 1.13
+1.25 1.32 1.11
+1.50 1.27 1.09
+1.75 1.18 1.05
+2.00 1.10 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.69 1.78
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 2.03 1.44
Primary Bets
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