jerv vs Egersund Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

jerv
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-2)
Egersund
Kick-off 16:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

jerv opened at 0 against Egersund in the NM Cupen. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward jerv from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
jerv -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Egersund than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
jerv -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.45
Price Advantage
+22.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:38
Opening
0
13:30
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.86 / 1.86 -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.33 / 1.97 -0.25 2.46 / 1.87 -0.50 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 -0.25 3.00 / 1.68 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.86 / 1.86 -0.25 2.87 / 1.63 -0.25 -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.50 2.53 / 1.90 -0.50 -0.50
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 5.80
-2.00 7.20 5.10
-1.75 8.30 3.78
-1.50 6.40 3.08
-1.25 5.95 2.74
-1.00 5.55 2.46
-0.75 3.92 2.05
-0.25 2.87 1.63
0 2.54 1.46
+0.25 2.05 1.37
+0.75 1.62 1.18
+1.00 1.43 1.08
+1.25 1.35 1.07
+1.50 1.28 1.05
+1.75 1.19 1.02
+2.00 1.10 1.05
+2.50 1.07 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 3.80
-1.50 6.60 3.10
-1.25 6.25 2.75
-1.00 5.90 2.50
-0.75 4.00 2.10
-0.50 3.30 1.90
-0.25 3.00 1.68
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.15 1.38
+0.50 1.90 1.32
+0.75 1.70 1.23
+1.00 1.50 1.13
+1.25 1.42 1.12
+1.50 1.35 1.11
+1.75 1.25 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 1.90
-0.25 2.60 1.69
0 2.41 1.48
+0.25 2.01 1.42
+0.50 1.77 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 6.75
-2.00 9.20 6.00
-1.75 7.20 4.33
-1.50 5.55 3.42
-1.25 5.15 3.14
-1.00 4.75 2.78
-0.75 3.42 2.26
-0.25 2.49 1.77
0 2.25 1.58
+0.25 1.87 1.43
+0.75 1.51 1.23
+1.00 1.34 1.12
+1.25 1.27 1.10
+1.50 1.23 1.08
+1.75 1.14 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.87 2.36
-0.50 2.73 2.07
-0.25 2.46 1.87
0 2.19 1.63
+0.25 1.90 1.49
+0.50 1.70 1.40
+0.75 1.53 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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