Karaman FK vs Kepezspor Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Karaman FK
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Kepezspor
Kick-off 11:00 Stadium Kemal Kaynas Stadyum

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Karaman FK opened at 0 against Kepezspor in the Türkiye Kupası. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Karaman FK from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Karaman FK -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Kepezspor than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kepezspor +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+54.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:28
Opening
0
09:40
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
10:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.87 / 1.84 -0.25 1.75 / 2.62 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.88 / 1.83 -0.25 1.79 / 2.68 -0.50 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 0
1xBet 0 1.87 / 1.84 -0.25 1.79 / 2.62 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.20 / 2.15 -0.25 1.88 / 2.15 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.30 8.60
-1.50 3.50 6.05
-1.25 3.20 4.25
-1.00 2.88 5.25
-0.75 2.28 3.58
-0.25 1.79 2.62
0 1.55 2.31
+0.25 1.39 1.93
+0.75 1.21 1.50
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.25 1.15 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.22

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.75 2.05

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.50 2.47
-0.25 1.88 2.15
+0.25 1.65 1.72
+0.50 1.50 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.30 8.60
-1.50 3.50 6.05
-1.25 3.20 4.25
-1.00 2.88 5.25
-0.75 2.28 3.58
-0.25 1.75 2.62
0 1.55 2.31
+0.25 1.39 1.89
+0.75 1.21 1.50
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.25 1.15 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.33 2.99
-0.50 2.03 3.03
-0.25 1.79 2.68
0 1.53 2.34
+0.25 1.40 1.95
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.32 1.52
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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