Galata vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Galata
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Kick-off 12:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Galata opened at -0.25 against Yalova Yeşilovaspor in the Türkiye Kupası. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Galata -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Yalova Yeşilovaspor than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Yalova Yeşilovaspor +0.25
@ 2.83
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+70.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:28
Opening
-0.25
09:40
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.65 -0.25 1.71 / 2.65 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.83 / 1.88 -0.50 1.90 / 2.77 -0.50 -0.50
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 0
1xBet -0.25 1.79 / 2.67 -0.25 1.74 / 2.65 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 2.65 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.73 -0.25 1.90 / 2.47 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.75 8.50
-1.50 3.58 6.60
-1.25 3.20 4.03
-1.00 2.83 5.70
-0.75 2.24 3.82
-0.25 1.74 2.65
0 1.52 2.38
+0.25 1.38 1.98
+0.75 1.19 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.33
+1.25 1.17 1.26
+1.50 1.05 1.21
+2.00 1.03 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 2.55
-0.25 1.90 2.47
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.46 1.78
+0.50 1.43 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.65
+0.25 1.44 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.60
-1.00 2.83 5.70
-0.75 2.24 3.82
-0.25 1.71 2.65
0 1.52 2.38
+0.25 1.38 1.94
+0.75 1.18 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.33
+1.50 1.05 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.17 3.00
-0.50 1.90 2.77
-0.25 1.67 2.83
0 1.44 2.48
+0.25 1.35 2.05
+0.50 1.36 1.81
+0.75 1.31 1.60
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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