Marko vs Larisa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Marko
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:45
1.18 1.42
Larisa
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Marko opened at -0.25 against Larisa in the Super League 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Marko +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Marko -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Larisa than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Larisa +0.25
@ 2.52
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.56
Price Advantage
+61.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
xG 1.18 / 1.42 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Marko @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.78
Marko @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.78
Market price is 33.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 9.20
-1.50 4.55 6.80
-1.25 4.10 6.29
-1.00 3.58 5.75
-0.75 2.59 3.74
-0.25 1.88 2.52
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.41 1.78
+0.75 1.19 1.39
+1.00 1.07 1.21
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 9.20
-1.50 4.55 6.80
-1.25 4.10 6.30
-1.00 3.58 5.75
-0.75 2.59 3.74
-0.25 1.86 2.52
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.41 1.76
+0.75 1.19 1.39
+1.00 1.07 1.21
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13
Primary Bets
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