22 de Julio vs El Nacional Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

22 de Julio
Final Score
2 – 5
(HT 1-2)
El Nacional
Kick-off 20:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

22 de Julio opened at -0.25 against El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.25
22 de Julio +0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.16 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
22 de Julio -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.50
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.50 AH points more toward El Nacional than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
22 de Julio -0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.50
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.86
Price Advantage
+10.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:14
Opening
-0.25
16:13
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.92 / 1.62 -0.25 2.97 / 1.58 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.09 / 1.67 -0.25 3.16 / 1.61 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.97 / 1.58 -0.25 2.97 / 1.58 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.85 2.97
-1.00 6.05 2.39
-0.75 4.20 2.01
-0.25 2.97 1.58
0 2.62 1.38
+0.25 2.12 1.30
+0.75 1.68 1.19
+1.00 1.48 1.06
+1.50 1.30 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.85 2.97
-1.00 6.05 2.39
-0.25 2.97 1.58
0 2.62 1.38
+0.25 2.12 1.30
+1.00 1.48 1.06
+1.50 1.30 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.16 1.61
0 2.79 1.40
+0.25 2.25 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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