Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Heart Of Midlothian
Oct 15, 2026 - 19:00
1.29 1.31
FC Nordsjaelland
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Heart Of Midlothian opened at -0.25 against FC Nordsjaelland in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Heart Of Midlothian -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward FC Nordsjaelland than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
FC Nordsjaelland +0.25
@ 2.15
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+25.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.34 / 1.91 -0.25 2.34 / 1.91 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.15 / 1.70 0 2.15 / 1.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.98 -0.25 2.50 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet 0 2.15 / 1.75 0 2.15 / 1.75 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.75 / 1.65 +0.25 1.75 / 1.65 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.39 / 1.92 -0.25 2.39 / 1.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Heart Of Midlothian @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.34 vs 2.39
Market price is 2.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 8.00
-2.00 10.50 7.30
-1.75 6.85 5.05
-1.50 5.30 3.98
-1.25 4.90 3.58
-1.00 4.50 3.20
-0.75 3.22 2.53
-0.25 2.48 1.91
0 2.15 1.75
+0.25 1.74 1.58
+0.75 1.41 1.26
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.21 1.11
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 5.25
-1.50 5.75 4.00
-1.25 5.25 3.70
-1.00 4.65 3.30
-0.75 3.45 2.60
-0.50 2.85 2.25
-0.25 2.50 1.98
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.82 1.50
+0.50 1.62 1.40
+0.75 1.48 1.30
+1.00 1.32 1.18
+1.25 1.26 1.16
+1.50 1.23 1.14
+1.75 1.16 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.20 2.57
-0.50 2.70 2.17
-0.25 2.39 1.92
0 2.06 1.65
+0.25 1.76 1.49
+0.50 1.59 1.39
+0.75 1.43 1.29

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.25 2.95
-0.50 2.80 2.35
-0.25 2.32 2.15
+0.25 1.75 1.65
+0.50 1.62 1.47
+0.75 1.42 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.85 5.05
-1.50 5.30 3.98
-1.25 4.90 3.58
-1.00 4.50 3.20
-0.75 3.22 2.53
-0.25 2.34 1.91
0 2.07 1.69
+0.25 1.74 1.49
+0.75 1.41 1.26
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.21 1.11
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.36 3.47
-0.75 3.47 2.70
-0.50 2.85 2.28
-0.25 2.51 2.01
0 2.15 1.70
+0.25 1.83 1.53
+0.50 1.62 1.42
+0.75 1.47 1.30
+1.00 1.30 1.21
Primary Bets
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