Sturm Graz vs Rennes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sturm Graz
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Rennes
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Merkur Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sturm Graz opened at -0.25 against Rennes in the UEFA Europa League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 7 valid books, with 86% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.17
Sturm Graz +0.17

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.51
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sturm Graz -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward Rennes than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sturm Graz -0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.63
Price Advantage
+21.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 7 valid books · 86% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:02
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.90 / 1.71 -0.25 3.04 / 1.65 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.97 / 1.75 -0.25 3.07 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.70 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.05 / 1.71 -0.25 3.18 / 1.68 — 0
Unibet -0.50 3.05 / 1.94 -0.50 3.05 / 1.94 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.05 / 1.75 -0.25 3.15 / 1.60 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.91 / 1.68 -0.25 3.20 / 1.56 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.15 4.10
-1.50 7.00 3.28
-1.25 6.68 2.97
-1.00 6.25 2.65
-0.75 4.25 2.15
-0.25 3.18 1.68
0 2.68 1.52
+0.25 2.09 1.40
+0.75 1.61 1.18
+1.00 1.41 1.08
+1.25 1.31 1.07
+1.50 1.26 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.30
-1.25 7.00 2.85
-1.00 6.60 2.60
-0.75 4.40 2.10
-0.50 3.55 1.88
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.98 1.27
+0.75 1.70 1.20
+1.00 1.48 1.11
+1.25 1.40 1.10
+1.50 1.32 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.20 1.56
0 2.82 1.36
+0.25 2.23 1.29

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.15 1.60
+0.25 2.42 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 3.95
-1.50 7.30 3.15
-1.25 6.90 2.89
-1.00 6.50 2.55
-0.75 4.40 2.11
-0.25 3.04 1.65
0 2.72 1.46
+0.25 2.14 1.34
+0.75 1.65 1.17
+1.00 1.44 1.07
+1.25 1.34 1.06
+1.50 1.28 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.48 2.02
-0.25 3.07 1.75
0 2.66 1.51
+0.25 2.14 1.39
+0.50 1.88 1.32

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.05 1.94
+0.50 1.74 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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