Lyon vs Crystal Palace Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lyon
Oct 15, 2026 - 16:45
1.52 1.17
Crystal Palace
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lyon opened at -0.25 against Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
Lyon -0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lyon -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Lyon than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Crystal Palace +0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.08
Price Advantage
+31.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.63 -0.25 1.84 / 2.63 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.92 / 2.73 -0.25 1.92 / 2.73 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.60 -0.25 1.92 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.63 -0.25 1.91 / 2.63 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.70 -0.50 2.18 / 3.10 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.59 -0.25 1.82 / 2.58 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
xG 1.52 / 1.17 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
Lyon @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
Lyon @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 1.93
Market price is 0.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.82 8.00
-1.50 3.78 6.10
-1.25 3.44 5.67
-1.00 3.04 5.35
-0.75 2.42 3.63
-0.25 1.91 2.63
0 1.64 2.37
+0.25 1.44 1.97
+0.75 1.23 1.50
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.08 1.26
+1.50 1.07 1.20
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 6.25
-1.25 3.55 5.75
-1.00 3.30 5.25
-0.75 2.50 3.70
-0.50 2.15 3.00
-0.25 1.92 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.92
+0.50 1.38 1.68
+0.75 1.26 1.50
+1.00 1.16 1.32
+1.25 1.14 1.27
+1.50 1.12 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.08 2.93
-0.25 1.82 2.58
0 1.56 2.22
+0.25 1.42 1.84
+0.50 1.33 1.64

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 3.10
+0.50 1.39 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 8.00
-1.50 3.78 6.10
-1.25 3.42 5.70
-1.00 3.04 5.35
-0.75 2.42 3.65
-0.25 1.84 2.63
0 1.61 2.32
+0.25 1.44 1.89
+0.75 1.24 1.50
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.09 1.25
+1.50 1.07 1.20
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.56 3.91
-0.50 2.18 3.11
-0.25 1.92 2.73
0 1.61 2.33
+0.25 1.47 1.93
+0.50 1.37 1.70
+0.75 1.26 1.52
Primary Bets
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