1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

1899 Hoffenheim
Oct 15, 2026 - 19:00
1.46 1.23
Beşiktaş
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

1899 Hoffenheim opened at -0.25 against Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
1899 Hoffenheim -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
1899 Hoffenheim -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Beşiktaş than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Beşiktaş +0.25
@ 3.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+56.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.95 -0.25 1.67 / 2.95 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.69 / 3.06 -0.25 1.69 / 3.06 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.95 -0.25 1.74 / 2.95 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.65 / 2.91 -0.25 1.65 / 2.91 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
xG 1.46 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.69
1899 Hoffenheim @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.05
1899 Hoffenheim @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.69 vs 2.05
Market price is 17.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.82 8.60
-1.50 3.12 6.65
-1.25 2.82 6.26
-1.00 2.52 5.95
-0.75 2.11 4.16
-0.25 1.74 2.95
0 1.51 2.71
+0.25 1.36 2.20
+0.75 1.18 1.65
+1.00 1.09 1.45
+1.25 1.06 1.37
+1.50 1.06 1.28

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.80
-1.25 2.85 6.25
-1.00 2.50 5.90
-0.75 2.15 4.10
-0.50 1.95 3.30
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.32 1.90
+0.75 1.23 1.68
+1.00 1.13 1.50
+1.25 1.12 1.40
+1.50 1.10 1.32

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 2.91
0 1.44 2.53
+0.25 1.34 2.07

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 3.00
+0.25 1.42 2.18

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.80 8.60
-1.50 3.12 6.65
-1.25 2.80 6.30
-1.00 2.52 5.95
-0.75 2.11 4.20
-0.25 1.67 2.95
0 1.48 2.66
+0.25 1.36 2.11
+0.75 1.19 1.65
+1.00 1.09 1.45
+1.25 1.07 1.36
+1.50 1.06 1.28

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.93 3.44
-0.25 1.69 3.06
0 1.48 2.69
+0.25 1.38 2.18
+0.50 1.31 1.92
Primary Bets
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