1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

1899 Hoffenheim
Oct 22, 2026 - 19:00
1.20 1.53
Lyon
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

1899 Hoffenheim opened at -0.25 against Lyon in the UEFA Europa League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.30
1899 Hoffenheim +0.30

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
1899 Hoffenheim -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.55
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.55 AH points more toward Lyon than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lyon +0.25
@ 3.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.55
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.52
Price Advantage
+99.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.90 -0.25 1.69 / 2.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.71 / 3.03 -0.25 1.71 / 3.03 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.90 -0.25 1.76 / 2.90 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 1.87 / 2.93 -0.50 1.87 / 2.93 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.30
xG 1.20 / 1.53 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
1899 Hoffenheim @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.93
1899 Hoffenheim @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 2.93
Market price is 41.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.25 11.00
-2.00 5.50 11.50
-1.75 4.00 8.70
-1.50 3.22 6.70
-1.25 2.94 6.31
-1.00 2.58 5.95
-0.75 2.14 4.12
-0.25 1.76 2.90
0 1.53 2.65
+0.25 1.37 2.16
+0.75 1.18 1.63
+1.00 1.09 1.43
+1.25 1.06 1.34
+1.50 1.05 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.87 2.93
-0.25 1.66 2.91
0 1.44 2.53
+0.25 1.34 2.05
+0.50 1.34 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.25 9.20
-2.00 5.50 9.20
-1.75 3.98 8.70
-1.50 3.22 6.70
-1.25 2.92 6.35
-1.00 2.58 5.95
-0.75 2.14 4.15
-0.25 1.69 2.90
0 1.50 2.60
+0.25 1.37 2.07
+0.75 1.19 1.63
+1.00 1.09 1.43
+1.25 1.07 1.33
+1.50 1.05 1.27

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.22 3.89
-0.50 1.96 3.41
-0.25 1.71 3.03
0 1.49 2.65
+0.25 1.38 2.15
+0.50 1.32 1.89
+0.75 1.26 1.68
Primary Bets
More