Perth RedStar vs Perth Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Perth RedStar
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Perth
Kick-off 11:00 Stadium RedStar Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Perth RedStar opened at 0 against Perth in the Western Australia NPL. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Perth RedStar -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Perth RedStar 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Perth RedStar than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Perth RedStar 0
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+9.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:16
Opening
0
08:42
Last Pre-Match
0
10:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.90 0 1.87 / 1.81 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.79 / 2.00 0 1.87 / 1.92 0 0
Bet365 0 2.08 / 1.72 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 0
1xBet -0.25 2.29 / 1.91 0 1.82 / 1.86 0 +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.32 / 1.93 0 1.82 / 1.85 0 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.10 8.30
-2.00 7.40 7.70
-1.75 5.29 5.44
-1.50 4.20 4.30
-1.25 3.84 3.96
-1.00 3.48 3.58
-0.75 2.70 2.74
-0.25 2.06 2.08
0 1.82 1.86
+0.25 1.60 1.66
+0.75 1.35 1.36
+1.00 1.21 1.22
+1.25 1.17 1.18
+1.50 1.14 1.15
+1.75 1.08 1.09
+2.00 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 5.75
-1.50 4.40 4.40
-1.25 4.10 4.10
-1.00 3.70 3.70
-0.75 3.00 3.00
-0.50 2.42 2.42
-0.25 2.20 2.20
0 1.92 1.88
+0.25 1.65 1.65
+0.50 1.52 1.52
+0.75 1.38 1.38
+1.00 1.26 1.26
+1.25 1.23 1.23
+1.50 1.20 1.20
+1.75 1.14 1.14

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.36 2.41
-0.25 2.09 2.13
0 1.82 1.85
+0.25 1.61 1.64
+0.50 1.48 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.40 7.90
-2.00 7.80 7.30
-1.75 5.50 5.25
-1.50 4.40 4.15
-1.25 4.00 3.84
-1.00 3.68 3.48
-0.75 2.83 2.70
-0.25 2.10 2.03
0 1.87 1.81
+0.25 1.63 1.59
+0.75 1.36 1.33
+1.00 1.22 1.20
+1.25 1.18 1.17
+1.50 1.16 1.14
+1.75 1.09 1.08
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 2.81
-0.50 2.33 2.38
-0.25 2.11 2.15
0 1.87 1.92
+0.25 1.66 1.69
+0.50 1.53 1.55
+0.75 1.39 1.41
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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