Albion FC vs Progreso Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Albion FC
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Progreso
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Albion FC opened at -0.25 against Progreso in the Copa Uruguay. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Albion FC -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.40 / 1.20
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Albion FC -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Progreso than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Progreso +0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+66.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:09
Opening
-0.25
17:57
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.63 -0.50 2.01 / 3.17 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 -0.25 1.90 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.54 -0.25 1.85 / 2.60 -0.25 0
Superbet -0.50 2.10 / 2.82 -0.50 2.10 / 2.82 -0.50 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 6.70
-1.25 3.88 5.60
-1.00 3.42 5.75
-0.75 2.60 3.82
-0.25 1.85 2.60
0 1.57 2.21
+0.25 1.39 1.79
+0.75 1.18 1.42
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.11 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 6.40
-1.25 3.70 5.90
-1.00 3.30 5.50
-0.75 2.60 3.70
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.90 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.90
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.26 1.48
+1.00 1.15 1.32
+1.25 1.13 1.26
+1.50 1.12 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 6.75
-1.00 3.42 5.85
-0.75 2.52 3.85
-0.25 1.83 2.59
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.79
+0.75 1.18 1.41
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.50 1.04 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.01 3.17
-0.25 1.72 3.19
0 1.43 2.70
+0.25 1.32 2.09
+0.50 1.33 1.80

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.10 2.82
+0.50 1.32 1.58
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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