Villarreal vs Napoli Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Villarreal
Oct 13, 2026 - 19:00
1.34 1.46
Napoli
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Villarreal opened at -0.25 against Napoli in the UEFA Champions League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Villarreal -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward Napoli than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Napoli +0.25
@ 2.71
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+63.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.60 -0.25 1.89 / 2.60 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.71 -0.25 1.93 / 2.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.99 / 2.60 -0.25 1.99 / 2.60 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.53 / 1.85 +0.25 1.53 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
xG 1.34 / 1.46 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Villarreal @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Villarreal @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.52
Market price is 23.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.28 8.50
-1.50 4.10 6.35
-1.25 3.66 5.91
-1.00 3.30 5.45
-0.75 2.53 3.70
-0.25 1.99 2.60
0 1.70 2.34
+0.25 1.46 1.95
+0.75 1.23 1.47
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.02 1.11

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 6.40
-1.25 3.55 5.90
-1.00 3.30 5.50
-0.75 2.50 3.80
-0.50 2.15 3.10
-0.25 1.92 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.92
+0.50 1.35 1.68
+0.75 1.25 1.50
+1.00 1.15 1.32
+1.25 1.13 1.27
+1.50 1.12 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.47 3.70
-0.50 2.10 2.91
-0.25 1.84 2.56
0 1.57 2.21
+0.25 1.43 1.83
+0.50 1.34 1.63
+0.75 1.22 1.46

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 2.95
-0.25 2.00 2.57
+0.25 1.53 1.85
+0.50 1.42 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.25 8.50
-1.50 4.10 6.35
-1.25 3.65 5.95
-1.00 3.30 5.45
-0.75 2.53 3.72
-0.25 1.89 2.60
0 1.65 2.27
+0.25 1.46 1.85
+0.75 1.24 1.47
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.58 3.86
-0.50 2.19 3.08
-0.25 1.93 2.71
0 1.62 2.31
+0.25 1.47 1.93
+0.50 1.37 1.69
+0.75 1.26 1.51
Primary Bets
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