Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shakhtar Donetsk
Oct 14, 2026 - 19:00
1.69 1.66
AEK Athens FC
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shakhtar Donetsk opened at 0 against AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.03
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shakhtar Donetsk 0
Model–Market Gap
0.03
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.03 AH points more toward Shakhtar Donetsk than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Shakhtar Donetsk 0
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.03
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.97
Price Advantage
+3.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.98 / 1.85 0 1.98 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.93 / 1.92 0 1.93 / 1.92 — 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.90 0 1.92 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet 0 2.04 / 1.90 0 2.04 / 1.90 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.67 / 1.67 +0.25 1.67 / 1.67 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.86 / 1.81 0 1.85 / 1.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.03
xG 1.69 / 1.66 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.97
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 1.97
Market price is 2.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 11.50
-2.00 10.00 10.50
-1.75 7.42 7.48
-1.50 5.50 5.05
-1.25 5.08 4.58
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.22 2.98
-0.25 2.39 2.13
0 2.04 1.90
+0.25 1.67 1.68
+0.75 1.34 1.31
+1.00 1.19 1.16
+1.25 1.14 1.13
+1.50 1.12 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.04
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 6.80
-1.50 5.25 5.25
-1.25 4.65 4.65
-1.00 4.15 4.15
-0.75 3.10 3.10
-0.50 2.50 2.50
-0.25 2.20 2.20
0 1.92 1.92
+0.25 1.65 1.65
+0.50 1.50 1.50
+0.75 1.35 1.35
+1.00 1.22 1.22
+1.25 1.18 1.18
+1.50 1.16 1.16
+1.75 1.10 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.40 4.25
-0.75 3.05 3.00
-0.50 2.50 2.45
-0.25 2.18 2.14
0 1.85 1.82
+0.25 1.61 1.58
+0.50 1.46 1.45
+0.75 1.32 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.15 3.15
-0.50 2.57 2.57
-0.25 2.25 2.25
+0.25 1.67 1.67
+0.50 1.53 1.53
+0.75 1.38 1.38

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.30 6.60
-1.50 5.50 5.05
-1.25 5.05 4.60
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.22 2.99
-0.25 2.27 2.13
0 1.98 1.85
+0.25 1.67 1.59
+0.75 1.35 1.31
+1.00 1.19 1.16
+1.25 1.15 1.12
+1.50 1.12 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.35 4.34
-0.75 3.17 3.15
-0.50 2.61 2.59
-0.25 2.26 2.25
0 1.93 1.92
+0.25 1.66 1.65
+0.50 1.51 1.51
+0.75 1.36 1.36
+1.00 1.22 1.22
Primary Bets
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