Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fenerbahçe
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
AS Roma
Kick-off 16:45 Stadium Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fenerbahçe opened at 0 against AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Fenerbahçe from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 7 of 10 valid books, with 70% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.78 / 1.77
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fenerbahçe -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 7 / 10 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward AS Roma than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Fenerbahçe -0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+39.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
7 / 10 valid books · 70% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
0
12:43
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.83 / 1.91 0 2.25 / 1.60 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.87 / 1.93 -0.25 2.95 / 1.74 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.91 / 1.94 -0.25 3.16 / 1.81 — -0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.16 / 1.90 -0.25 2.16 / 1.84 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.95 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.92 / 1.98 -0.25 3.13 / 1.74 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.63 / 2.40 -0.50 3.10 / 2.07 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.65 / 1.70 -0.25 2.85 / 1.87 — -0.50
Superbet -0.50 3.10 / 2.17 -0.50 3.15 / 2.07 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.82 / 1.85 -0.25 2.86 / 1.71 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main +0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.50 2.15
0 2.25 1.60
+0.50 1.67 1.50

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.45 4.22
-1.50 7.00 3.42
-1.25 6.68 3.08
-1.00 6.25 2.77
-0.75 4.30 2.24
-0.25 3.13 1.74
0 2.69 1.56
+0.25 2.05 1.44
+0.75 1.59 1.20
+1.00 1.40 1.09
+1.25 1.31 1.08
+1.50 1.26 1.06
+1.75 1.16 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 4.40
-1.50 7.00 3.55
-1.25 6.40 3.30
-1.00 6.00 2.85
-0.75 4.15 2.30
-0.50 3.30 2.05
-0.25 2.85 1.75
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.40
+0.50 1.80 1.32
+0.75 1.60 1.22
+1.00 1.40 1.12
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.27 1.10
+1.75 1.20 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.10 2.27
-0.50 3.25 1.95
-0.25 2.86 1.71
0 2.47 1.46
+0.25 1.98 1.35
+0.50 1.73 1.28
+0.75 1.54 1.18

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.70 2.50
-0.50 3.25 2.15
-0.25 2.85 1.87
+0.25 1.98 1.45
+0.50 1.75 1.36
+0.75 1.57 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.00 5.85
-1.75 9.10 4.25
-1.50 7.00 3.42
-1.25 6.65 3.10
-1.00 6.25 2.77
-0.75 4.30 2.25
-0.25 2.95 1.74
0 2.59 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.75 1.60 1.20
+1.00 1.40 1.09
+1.25 1.32 1.08
+1.50 1.26 1.06
+1.75 1.17 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.86 2.94
-0.75 4.63 2.38
-0.50 3.60 2.06
-0.25 3.16 1.81
0 2.69 1.52
+0.25 2.15 1.40
+0.50 1.84 1.32
+0.75 1.64 1.22
+1.00 1.44 1.19

SBO Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.16 1.84
+0.25 2.06 1.72

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-2.50 15.00 7.60
-1.50 6.30 3.75
-0.50 3.15 2.07
+0.50 1.72 1.35
+1.50 1.26 1.11
+2.50 1.08 1.02

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 3.70
-0.50 3.10 2.07
+0.50 1.67 1.32
+1.50 1.23 1.08
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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