Central Espanol vs Defensor Sporting Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Central Espanol
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Defensor Sporting
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Parque Palermo

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Central Espanol opened at -0.25 against Defensor Sporting in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 9 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Central Espanol -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Defensor Sporting than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Defensor Sporting +0.25
@ 2.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+18.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 9 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:21
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:02
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 2.10 / 1.65 0 2.25 / 1.57 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.81 -0.25 2.62 / 1.88 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.89 / 1.91 -0.25 2.84 / 2.01 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 -0.25 2.68 / 1.98 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 -0.25 2.64 / 1.90 -0.25 0
Unibet -0.50 3.10 / 2.10 -0.50 3.10 / 2.10 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.80 -0.25 2.65 / 1.98 — 0
Superbet -0.50 2.87 / 2.17 -0.50 2.87 / 2.17 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.59 / 1.93 -0.25 2.62 / 1.92 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.25 1.57

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.85
-1.25 7.10 4.34
-1.00 6.50 3.80
-0.75 4.06 2.72
-0.25 2.64 1.90
0 2.20 1.57
+0.25 1.77 1.39
+0.75 1.37 1.17
+1.00 1.19 1.05
+1.25 1.15 1.04
+1.50 1.11 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 4.65
-1.25 6.80 4.25
-1.00 6.25 3.70
-0.75 4.00 2.75
-0.50 3.10 2.30
-0.25 2.68 1.98
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.82 1.45
+0.50 1.60 1.35
+0.75 1.42 1.23
+1.00 1.26 1.12
+1.25 1.21 1.10
+1.50 1.18 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.92
0 2.17 1.59
+0.25 1.76 1.41

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.87 2.30
-0.25 2.65 1.98
+0.25 1.80 1.47
+0.50 1.60 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.85
-1.25 7.10 4.33
-1.00 6.50 3.80
-0.75 4.05 2.70
-0.25 2.62 1.88
0 2.20 1.57
+0.25 1.75 1.38
+0.75 1.36 1.17
+1.00 1.19 1.05
+1.25 1.14 1.04
+1.50 1.11 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.40 2.90
-0.50 3.33 2.37
-0.25 2.84 2.01
0 2.32 1.63
+0.25 1.85 1.44
+0.50 1.61 1.34
+0.75 1.43 1.22

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.87 2.17
+0.50 1.54 1.31

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.10
+0.50 1.63 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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