JS Hercules vs TP-47 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

JS Hercules
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00
1.26 1.34
TP-47
Opening
-0.50
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.50
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.50
1 / 2 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

JS Hercules opened at -0.50 against TP-47 in the Kakkonen - Lohko C. The current market consensus is -0.50. The current consensus is -0.50 across 1 of 2 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
JS Hercules -0.50
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.50 · 1 / 2 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward TP-47 than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 valid books · 50% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.71 / 2.84 -0.50 1.71 / 2.84 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.00 -0.25 1.65 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.50
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
JS Hercules @ -0.50 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.86
JS Hercules @ -0.50 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 2.86
Market price is 40.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.45 5.75
-1.50 2.85 6.00
-1.25 2.60 5.75
-1.00 2.35 5.50
-0.75 2.05 3.90
-0.50 1.80 3.30
-0.25 1.65 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.20
+0.50 1.32 2.00
+0.75 1.24 1.75
+1.00 1.15 1.58
+1.25 1.14 1.48
+1.50 1.12 1.40
+1.75 1.14 1.30

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.71 2.84
-0.25 1.54 2.87
0 1.37 2.90
+0.25 1.38 2.36
+0.50 1.38 2.08
Primary Bets
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