URA vs KCCA Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

URA
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
KCCA
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Hamz Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

URA opened at -0.25 against KCCA in the Premier League. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward KCCA from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.25
URA +0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.16 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
URA 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward KCCA than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
KCCA 0
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+8.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:28
Opening
-0.25
15:12
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.59 / 1.86 0 1.89 / 1.77 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.85 / 1.85 0 1.85 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.62 / 1.86 0 1.89 / 1.77 — +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.75 7.10
-1.50 5.90 5.35
-1.25 5.40 4.89
-1.00 4.90 4.40
-0.75 3.20 2.97
-0.25 2.26 2.08
0 1.89 1.77
+0.25 1.60 1.53
+0.75 1.30 1.26
+1.00 1.14 1.11
+1.25 1.11 1.09
+1.50 1.09 1.07
+1.75 1.04 1.02

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 7.10
-1.50 5.90 5.35
-1.25 5.40 4.90
-1.00 4.90 4.40
-0.75 3.20 2.97
-0.25 2.24 2.08
0 1.89 1.77
+0.25 1.60 1.52
+0.75 1.30 1.26
+1.00 1.14 1.11
+1.25 1.11 1.09
+1.50 1.09 1.07
+1.75 1.04 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.07 3.03
-0.50 2.48 2.48
-0.25 2.18 2.18
0 1.85 1.85
+0.25 1.60 1.60
+0.50 1.45 1.45
+0.75 1.30 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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