Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Olimpia
Oct 06, 2026 - 22:15 1H
0 1.26
1 1.34
Nacional Asuncion
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Olimpia opened at -0.25 against Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional - Clausura. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Olimpia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Nacional Asuncion than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Nacional Asuncion +0.25
@ 2.92
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+74.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 3.14 -0.25 1.69 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.50 / 2.67 0 1.50 / 2.67 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 -0.25 1.82 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.66 / 3.19 -0.25 1.74 / 2.97 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.73 / 2.95 -0.25 1.73 / 2.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.69
Olimpia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Olimpia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.69 vs 2.48
Market price is 31.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.99 8.65
-1.25 3.54 8.10
-1.00 3.09 8.05
-0.75 2.32 4.53
-0.25 1.74 2.97
0 1.47 2.56
+0.25 1.33 2.01
+0.75 1.14 1.53
+1.00 1.03 1.31
+1.25 1.02 1.23

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.30 4.50
-0.50 2.02 3.55
-0.25 1.82 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 1.98
+0.50 1.27 1.78
+0.75 1.19 1.60

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.73 2.95
0 1.45 2.49
+0.25 1.33 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.95 8.60
-1.25 3.50 8.00
-1.00 3.04 7.40
-0.75 2.30 4.50
-0.25 1.69 2.92
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.31 1.95
+0.75 1.13 1.49
+1.00 1.03 1.29
+1.25 1.02 1.22

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.56 5.10
-0.50 2.17 3.79
-0.25 1.84 3.25
0 1.50 2.67
+0.25 1.36 2.02
+0.50 1.27 1.71
+0.75 1.18 1.53
Primary Bets
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