Rīgas FS vs Riga Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rīgas FS
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Riga
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium LNK Sporta Parks

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rīgas FS opened at 0 against Riga in the Cup. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Rīgas FS +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.19 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Rīgas FS 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Riga than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Riga 0
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+13.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:30
Opening
0
12:28
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.77 / 1.85 0 1.77 / 1.85 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.82 / 1.85 0 1.74 / 1.94 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 1.98 0 1.75 / 1.98 — 0
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.82 / 1.85 0 1.75 / 1.93 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.77 1.85

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.90 8.90
-1.75 5.90 6.90
-1.50 4.55 5.25
-1.25 4.15 4.80
-1.00 3.74 4.40
-0.75 2.78 3.14
-0.25 2.06 2.26
0 1.75 1.93
+0.25 1.51 1.66
+0.75 1.27 1.34
+1.00 1.14 1.19
+1.25 1.12 1.16
+1.50 1.09 1.13
+1.75 1.04 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 2.00

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.00 8.80
-1.75 6.00 7.10
-1.50 4.60 5.35
-1.25 4.20 4.95
-1.00 3.78 4.50
-0.75 2.81 3.20
-0.25 2.03 2.26
0 1.74 1.94
+0.25 1.51 1.63
+0.75 1.26 1.33
+1.00 1.13 1.19
+1.25 1.11 1.15
+1.50 1.09 1.13
+1.75 1.04 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.76 3.16
-0.50 2.34 2.63
-0.25 2.05 2.32
0 1.75 1.98
+0.25 1.53 1.67
+0.50 1.40 1.50
+0.75 1.28 1.36
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More