Şimal vs Xankəndi FK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Şimal
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Xankəndi FK
Kick-off 11:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Şimal opened at -0.25 against Xankəndi FK in the Birinci Dasta. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Şimal +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.19 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Şimal -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Xankəndi FK than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Xankəndi FK +0.25
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+17.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:38
Opening
-0.25
10:13
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.73 -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.96 / 1.70 -0.25 2.96 / 1.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.05 / 1.85 -0.25 2.05 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.00 -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.50 3.50
-1.00 6.55 2.78
-0.75 4.25 2.23
-0.25 2.88 1.67
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.99 1.32
+0.75 1.55 1.15
+1.00 1.34 1.05
+1.50 1.22 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.05 1.85
+0.25 1.95 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.50 3.50
-1.00 6.55 2.78
-0.75 4.25 2.21
-0.25 2.88 1.67
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.32
+0.75 1.53 1.15
+1.00 1.34 1.05
+1.50 1.22 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.96 1.70
0 2.55 1.44
+0.25 2.05 1.33
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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