MOIK vs Mingəçevir Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

MOIK
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Mingəçevir
Kick-off 11:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

MOIK opened at -0.50 against Mingəçevir in the Birinci Dasta. The current market consensus is -0.50. The current consensus is -0.50 across 1 of 3 valid books, with 33% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
MOIK +0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.17 / 1.43
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
MOIK -0.50
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 1 / 3 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.73
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.73 AH points more toward Mingəçevir than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.50
1 / 3 valid books · 33% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:20
Opening
-0.50
10:13
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.33 -0.25 1.56 / 3.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.89 / 3.00 -0.50 1.89 / 3.00 — 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.95 / 1.85 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.15
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 1.68 1.98

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 8.60
-1.00 2.50 7.50
-0.75 2.02 3.80
-0.25 1.56 3.14
0 1.35 2.74
+0.25 1.27 2.15
+0.75 1.19 1.64
+1.00 1.03 1.44

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.89 3.00
-0.25 1.67 2.89
0 1.44 2.54
+0.25 1.35 2.09
+0.50 1.31 1.85
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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