Monagas SC vs Portuguesa FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Monagas SC
Aug 22, 2026 - 20:00 PST
1.39 1.21
Portuguesa FC
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
-0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Monagas SC opened at -0.25 against Portuguesa FC in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Monagas SC -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Monagas SC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Portuguesa FC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Portuguesa FC +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+44.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.72 -0.25 1.89 / 2.75 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.75 -0.25 1.90 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Superbet -0.50 2.02 / 3.10 -0.50 2.07 / 2.92 -0.50 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Monagas SC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Monagas SC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.11
Market price is 10.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.27 9.50
-1.50 3.96 8.11
-1.25 3.53 7.43
-1.00 3.09 6.74
-0.75 2.58 3.90
-0.25 1.90 2.74
0 1.56 2.42
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.46
+1.00 1.10 1.37
+1.25 1.09 1.30
+1.50 1.08 1.25

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.90 6.80
-1.00 3.45 6.25
-0.75 2.60 4.15
-0.50 2.20 3.30
-0.25 1.88 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.92
+0.50 1.32 1.65
+0.75 1.22 1.48
+1.00 1.12 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.50 9.50
-1.50 4.20 7.00
-1.25 3.78 6.50
-1.00 3.28 5.95
-0.75 2.46 3.90
-0.25 1.81 2.62
0 1.55 2.25
+0.25 1.38 1.81
+0.75 1.18 1.43
+1.00 1.07 1.25
+1.25 1.05 1.19
+1.50 1.04 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 3.16
-0.25 1.89 2.75
0 1.58 2.36
+0.25 1.42 1.93
+0.50 1.33 1.68

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 2.92
+0.50 1.30 1.60
Primary Bets
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