Alanyaspor U19 vs Erzurumspor U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Alanyaspor U19
Oct 10, 2026 - 10:00
1.32 1.28
Erzurumspor U19
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Alanyaspor U19 opened at -0.25 against Erzurumspor U19 in the U19 league. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Alanyaspor U19 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Erzurumspor U19 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Erzurumspor U19 +0.25
@ 3.11
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+75.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.67 / 2.81 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.65 / 3.11 -0.25 1.65 / 3.11 — 0
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.68 / 2.81 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.41 -0.50 1.97 / 2.66 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.65
Alanyaspor U19 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Alanyaspor U19 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.65 vs 2.30
Market price is 28.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.34 6.75
-1.00 2.70 5.90
-0.75 2.17 4.04
-0.25 1.68 2.81
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.33 2.00
+0.75 1.16 1.55
+1.00 1.07 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.97 2.66
-0.25 1.72 2.82
0 1.48 2.42
+0.25 1.36 1.96
+0.50 1.40 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.34 6.75
-1.00 2.70 5.90
-0.75 2.17 4.05
-0.25 1.67 2.81
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.33 1.98
+0.75 1.17 1.55
+1.00 1.07 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 3.11
0 1.40 2.69
+0.25 1.31 2.14
Primary Bets
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