Defensor Sporting vs Atletico Torque Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Defensor Sporting
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-2)
Atletico Torque
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Estadio Luis Franzini

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Defensor Sporting opened at 0 against Atletico Torque in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Defensor Sporting from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 9 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.37 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Defensor Sporting -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Atletico Torque than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Defensor Sporting -0.25
@ 3.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.16
Price Advantage
+41.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 9 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:18
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 2.05 / 1.70 0 2.05 / 1.70 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.81 / 1.86 -0.25 2.74 / 1.77 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.92 / 1.88 -0.25 3.06 / 1.88 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 2.02 -0.25 3.00 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet 0 1.81 / 1.86 -0.25 2.76 / 1.79 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.30 / 2.80 -0.50 2.85 / 2.18 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.45 / 2.07 -0.25 2.70 / 1.90 — 0
Superbet -0.50 2.72 / 2.22 -0.50 2.72 / 2.22 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.47 / 1.97 -0.25 2.77 / 1.81 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.05 1.70

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.35
-1.50 7.50 4.10
-1.25 7.10 3.70
-1.00 6.50 3.20
-0.75 4.16 2.45
-0.25 2.76 1.79
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.88 1.36
+0.75 1.45 1.16
+1.00 1.26 1.05
+1.25 1.20 1.04
+1.50 1.16 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 4.15
-1.25 6.25 3.70
-1.00 6.80 3.30
-0.75 4.40 2.50
-0.50 3.45 2.10
-0.25 3.00 1.82
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 1.98 1.38
+0.50 1.70 1.30
+0.75 1.50 1.20
+1.00 1.32 1.10
+1.25 1.26 1.12
+1.50 1.22 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.77 1.81
0 2.33 1.51
+0.25 1.86 1.37

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.70 1.90
+0.25 1.87 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.70 5.35
-1.50 7.50 4.10
-1.25 7.10 3.68
-1.00 6.50 3.20
-0.75 4.15 2.43
-0.25 2.74 1.77
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.85 1.35
+0.75 1.44 1.16
+1.00 1.26 1.05
+1.25 1.20 1.04
+1.50 1.16 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.63 2.64
-0.50 3.55 2.19
-0.25 3.06 1.88
0 2.54 1.54
+0.25 1.98 1.40
+0.50 1.70 1.31
+0.75 1.50 1.21

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.72 2.22
+0.50 1.52 1.35

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.85 2.18
+0.50 1.58 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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