Burreli vs Besëlidhja Lezhë Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Burreli
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:30
1.31 1.29
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Burreli opened at -0.25 against Besëlidhja Lezhë in the 1st Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Burreli -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Besëlidhja Lezhë than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Besëlidhja Lezhë +0.25
@ 2.35
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+34.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.42 -0.25 1.96 / 2.35 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.42 -0.25 1.98 / 2.35 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
Burreli @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Burreli @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 2.33
Market price is 15.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 6.40
-1.00 3.95 5.25
-0.75 2.78 3.42
-0.25 1.98 2.35
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.47 1.70
+0.75 1.23 1.34
+1.00 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.05 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 2.00

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 6.40
-1.00 3.95 5.25
-0.75 2.78 3.42
-0.25 1.96 2.35
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.47 1.68
+0.75 1.23 1.34
+1.00 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.05 1.10
Primary Bets
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