Naft vs Diyala Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Naft
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Diyala
Kick-off 16:45

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Naft opened at -0.25 against Diyala in the Iraqi League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Naft -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Diyala than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Diyala +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+72.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:42
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.71 / 2.92 -0.25 1.66 / 3.08 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.65 / 3.17 -0.25 1.65 / 3.17 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.73 / 2.93 -0.25 1.67 / 3.09 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 7.60
-1.00 2.97 8.30
-0.75 2.28 4.90
-0.25 1.67 3.09
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.28 2.00
+0.75 1.11 1.52
+1.00 1.02 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.18

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 9.00
-1.00 2.97 8.30
-0.75 2.26 4.90
-0.25 1.66 3.08
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.75 1.11 1.51
+1.00 1.02 1.30

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 3.17
0 1.38 2.71
+0.25 1.28 2.09
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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