Stoke City U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Stoke City U21
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Charlton Athletic U21
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Bet365 Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Stoke City U21 opened at -0.25 against Charlton Athletic U21 in the Premier League Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Stoke City U21 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Charlton Athletic U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Stoke City U21 -0.25
@ 2.74
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.39
Price Advantage
+14.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.80 -0.25 2.56 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.52 / 1.83 -0.50 2.67 / 1.94 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 0 1.98 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.80 -0.25 2.58 / 1.70 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.88 / 1.50 -0.25 2.10 / 1.54 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 6.40
-2.00 7.30 5.65
-1.75 7.50 4.10
-1.50 5.75 3.28
-1.25 5.35 2.97
-1.00 4.95 2.62
-0.75 3.50 2.15
-0.25 2.58 1.70
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.94 1.41
+0.75 1.56 1.22
+1.00 1.38 1.11
+1.25 1.30 1.09
+1.50 1.25 1.07
+1.75 1.16 1.03
+2.00 1.08 1.05
+2.50 1.05 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.98 1.82

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.10 1.54
0 2.13 1.37
+0.25 1.82 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 6.40
-2.00 8.00 5.65
-1.75 7.50 4.10
-1.50 5.75 3.28
-1.25 5.35 2.97
-1.00 4.95 2.62
-0.75 3.50 2.15
-0.25 2.56 1.70
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.94 1.40
+0.75 1.56 1.22
+1.00 1.38 1.11
+1.25 1.30 1.09
+1.50 1.25 1.07
+1.75 1.16 1.03
+2.00 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.67 1.94
-0.25 2.74 1.73
0 2.45 1.52
+0.25 2.09 1.43
+0.50 1.88 1.45
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More