Peterborough United U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Peterborough United U21
Final Score
1 – 5
(HT 0-3)
Nottingham Forest U21
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Peterborough United U21 opened at -0.25 against Nottingham Forest U21 in the Premier League Cup. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Nottingham Forest U21 from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.36
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Peterborough United U21 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Nottingham Forest U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Nottingham Forest U21 0
@ 2.07
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+11.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.65 0 1.74 / 1.93 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.99 / 1.91 0 1.75 / 2.07 — +0.50
Bet365 -0.50 3.10 / 1.90 -0.25 2.42 / 1.90 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.74 / 1.65 0 1.74 / 1.93 — +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.15 / 1.64 -0.50 1.93 / 2.15 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.30 8.50
-2.00 6.65 7.90
-1.75 4.80 5.60
-1.50 3.88 4.45
-1.25 3.50 4.14
-1.00 3.20 3.78
-0.75 2.56 2.87
-0.25 1.98 2.17
0 1.74 1.93
+0.25 1.55 1.70
+0.75 1.32 1.40
+1.00 1.19 1.26
+1.25 1.16 1.22
+1.50 1.14 1.18
+1.75 1.08 1.12
+2.00 1.02 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 4.15
-1.50 5.00 3.45
-1.25 4.50 3.10
-1.00 4.15 2.85
-0.75 3.30 2.35
-0.50 2.75 2.08
-0.25 2.42 1.90
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.90 1.52
+0.50 1.72 1.42
+0.75 1.58 1.32
+1.00 1.40 1.22
+1.25 1.35 1.19
+1.50 1.30 1.17
+1.75 1.22 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.20 2.08
-0.50 1.93 2.15
-0.25 1.75 2.01
0 1.56 1.79
+0.25 1.43 1.59
+0.50 1.36 1.46
+0.75 1.39 1.34

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.30 8.50
-2.00 6.65 7.90
-1.75 4.80 5.60
-1.50 3.88 4.45
-1.25 3.50 4.15
-1.00 3.20 3.78
-0.75 2.56 2.88
-0.25 1.96 2.17
0 1.74 1.93
+0.25 1.55 1.68
+0.75 1.32 1.40
+1.00 1.19 1.26
+1.25 1.16 1.22
+1.50 1.14 1.18
+1.75 1.08 1.11
+2.00 1.02 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.35 2.97
-0.75 2.61 2.44
-0.50 2.24 2.61
-0.25 2.01 2.33
0 1.75 2.07
+0.25 1.57 1.82
+0.50 1.47 1.64
+0.75 1.53 1.47
+1.00 1.37 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More