Kazma vs Al Arabi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kazma
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Al Arabi
Kick-off 17:05

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kazma opened at -0.25 against Al Arabi in the Premier League. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Al Arabi from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Kazma 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Al Arabi than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
14:58
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.88 0 1.83 / 1.83 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.90 / 1.85 0 1.87 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.88 0 1.88 / 1.92 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.47 / 1.90 0 1.83 / 1.83 — +0.25
Betano -0.50 2.65 / 2.47 -0.50 2.47 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.22 / 1.70 -0.25 1.91 / 1.91 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.20 9.20
-1.50 4.85 4.85
-1.25 4.60 4.45
-1.00 4.05 4.05
-0.75 2.92 2.93
-0.25 2.14 2.13
0 1.83 1.83
+0.25 1.59 1.60
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.25 1.14 1.16
+1.50 1.11 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 6.60
-1.50 5.00 5.25
-1.25 4.40 4.50
-1.00 4.00 4.15
-0.75 3.00 3.10
-0.50 2.50 2.50
-0.25 2.20 2.25
0 1.88 1.92
+0.25 1.62 1.65
+0.50 1.50 1.50
+0.75 1.35 1.38
+1.00 1.22 1.23
+1.25 1.19 1.20
+1.50 1.16 1.17
+1.75 1.11 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.15 2.13
-0.25 1.91 1.91
0 1.67 1.66
+0.25 1.48 1.48
+0.50 1.37 1.36

Betano Main +0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.47 2.47
+0.50 1.50 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.20 9.20
-1.50 4.85 4.85
-1.00 4.05 4.05
-0.75 2.92 2.92
-0.25 2.12 2.12
0 1.83 1.83
+0.25 1.58 1.58
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.50 1.11 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.02 3.05
-0.50 2.49 2.51
-0.25 2.19 2.21
0 1.87 1.88
+0.25 1.61 1.62
+0.50 1.46 1.47
+0.75 1.32 1.33
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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