Dimona vs Hapoel Sderot Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dimona
Final Score
4 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Hapoel Sderot
Kick-off 10:35

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dimona opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Sderot in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dimona -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Hapoel Sderot than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hapoel Sderot +0.25
@ 2.81
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+56.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
10:21
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.62 -0.25 1.81 / 2.81 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 2.35 -0.25 1.63 / 2.35 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.33 7.20
-1.00 3.34 6.10
-0.75 2.49 3.90
-0.25 1.83 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.83
+0.75 1.18 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.03 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.63 2.35
0 1.40 2.06
+0.25 1.29 1.71

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.33 7.20
-1.00 3.34 6.10
-0.75 2.49 3.90
-0.25 1.81 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.81
+0.75 1.18 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.03 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.09 3.22
-0.25 1.81 2.81
0 1.51 2.40
+0.25 1.37 1.93
+0.50 1.29 1.67
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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