Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Yavne Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hapoel Hadera
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Maccabi Yavne
Kick-off 10:30 Stadium Netanya Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hapoel Hadera opened at -0.25 against Maccabi Yavne in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Hapoel Hadera +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.22 / 1.38
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hapoel Hadera -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Maccabi Yavne than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Maccabi Yavne +0.25
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+19.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
10:21
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.90 -0.25 2.38 / 1.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.45 / 1.97 -0.25 2.54 / 1.93 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.90 -0.25 2.40 / 1.90 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.13 / 1.75 -0.25 2.14 / 1.74 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 4.30
-1.00 4.90 3.48
-0.75 3.34 2.59
-0.25 2.40 1.90
0 2.05 1.65
+0.25 1.73 1.48
+0.75 1.39 1.24
+1.00 1.22 1.11
+1.50 1.14 1.07

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.14 1.74
0 1.87 1.50
+0.25 1.60 1.36

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 4.30
-1.00 4.90 3.48
-0.75 3.34 2.59
-0.25 2.38 1.90
0 2.05 1.65
+0.25 1.73 1.46
+0.75 1.39 1.24
+1.00 1.22 1.11
+1.50 1.14 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.90 2.21
-0.25 2.54 1.93
0 2.17 1.62
+0.25 1.81 1.44
+0.50 1.60 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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