FC Jerusalem vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Jerusalem
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Kick-off 09:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Jerusalem opened at -0.25 against Maccabi Kiryat Malachi in the Liga Alef. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
FC Jerusalem -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.38 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
FC Jerusalem -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Maccabi Kiryat Malachi than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi +0.25
@ 2.83
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+50.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
06:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.59 / 3.08 -0.25 1.70 / 2.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.62 / 3.12 -0.25 1.82 / 2.63 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.59 / 3.08 -0.25 1.70 / 2.83 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.61 / 2.35 -0.25 1.61 / 2.35 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 7.40
-1.00 2.92 6.40
-0.25 1.70 2.83
0 1.44 2.42
+0.25 1.33 1.94
+1.00 1.05 1.33
+1.50 1.03 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.61 2.35
0 1.40 2.06
+0.25 1.29 1.73

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 7.40
-1.00 2.92 6.40
-0.25 1.70 2.83
0 1.44 2.42
+0.25 1.33 1.94
+1.00 1.05 1.33
+1.50 1.03 1.20

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 2.97
-0.25 1.82 2.63
0 1.54 2.28
+0.25 1.40 1.89
+0.50 1.32 1.66
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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